Published article Quick Twitter summary Introduction As of August 2021, the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic remain a mystery. This essay summarizes a recent article I published about the prevalence in news media articles of two popular hypotheses about SARS-CoV-2 virus origins: the natural emergence and the lab-leak hypotheses. Results show that for most of 2020, the natural emergence hypothesis was favored in news media content while the lab-leak hypothesis was largely absent. However, something changed around May 2021 that caused the prevalence of the lab-leak hypothesis to substantially increase in news media discourse. This shift was not uniform across media organizations but instead manifested itself more acutely in some outlets than others. A structural break analysis of daily news media usage of terms related to the laboratory escape hypothesis provides hints about potential sources for this sudden shift in the prevalence of the lab-leak hypothesis in mainstream news media.
Nice article David! I think Philipp Markolin's excellent dissection and detailed explanation of the lab leak origin hypothesis won we over to a likely natural zoonotic event despite the arguments raised in Nicholas Wade's article and particularly over the origin of the furin cleavage site and the virus's unusual codon preference that you mention in your piece. Markolin doesn't dismiss the leak idea altogether, but zoonosis now makes more sense to me. Of course, the unfortunate association between the lab origin hypothesis and conspiracy mongering by the right wing press does nothing to clear the air or relieve tensions. And I've been taken aback by the frequently aggressive debunking of the lab origin hypothesis by the scientific community which does nothing to increase public confidence in expert opinion either!
Sad I’m just seeing this write up! Have you since conducted a follow-up to this excellent data and analysis? I would love to compare current lab-leak origin frequency in media with mid-2021 frequency you observed in the data given the recent moderately confident US energy dept and FBI pro lab-leak conclusions. How might those impact or update your then-tentative conclusion?
Nice article David! I think Philipp Markolin's excellent dissection and detailed explanation of the lab leak origin hypothesis won we over to a likely natural zoonotic event despite the arguments raised in Nicholas Wade's article and particularly over the origin of the furin cleavage site and the virus's unusual codon preference that you mention in your piece. Markolin doesn't dismiss the leak idea altogether, but zoonosis now makes more sense to me. Of course, the unfortunate association between the lab origin hypothesis and conspiracy mongering by the right wing press does nothing to clear the air or relieve tensions. And I've been taken aback by the frequently aggressive debunking of the lab origin hypothesis by the scientific community which does nothing to increase public confidence in expert opinion either!
Sad I’m just seeing this write up! Have you since conducted a follow-up to this excellent data and analysis? I would love to compare current lab-leak origin frequency in media with mid-2021 frequency you observed in the data given the recent moderately confident US energy dept and FBI pro lab-leak conclusions. How might those impact or update your then-tentative conclusion?