Others (here, here and here) have argued previously that The Great Awokening might be winding down. I have shown before some preliminary evidence from Twitter content about how Great Awokening terminology with negative connotations are indeed down but those with positive connotations have stabilized at their previous peak. Here, I summarize some quantitative evidence regarding usage of
This confirms my impression, but you’re right to be cautious. I set out the reasons both to be optimistic that the Great Awokening has peaked, as well as the reasons it’s far from over — and warned that Trump’s re-election could shock the movement back into rude good health — here: https://dailysceptic.org/2023/05/27/a-dispatch-from-the-woke-wars/
A great piece. The pattern of peak, slight subsidence, then consolidation is what we saw in the first two Awokenings (late 60s, early 90s). I’d expect same this time. Only question is whether it ratchets to a an even higher level in a future upsurge.
This is interesting but it is not going to answer the question. The media is downstream from academics, where ideological and paramoral presuppositions meet the public, but it is downstream from the engines of cultural production. You should be looking at whether the neo-Marxist ideologies that manufacture woke ideologues are in decline, and that's not the same thing.
Recall, woke is postmodern and it constantly plays a game of semantic migration. For example, define woman. Alternatively, sex is observed not assigned, but it is woke-speak to say "gender assigned at birth." Notice how that phrase embeds presuppositions drawn from gender ideology that are inappropriate when it comes to identifying a person's biological characteristics. Wokeness is about controlling language, so the use of its jargon in media is a useful measure, but you have to look to the academies to keep up with the new words and redefinition. As woke jargon declines it is replaced. You are not measuring the rate if replacement and invention of new jargon (which would be extremely difficult).
To really know if woke is ascending or declining, you should be measuring DEI initiatives and other ways neo-Marxist ideologues implement their agendas. How many neo-Marxist professors are there? How many conservatives are in grad schools? These kinds of numbers will tell the real story.
There is a very large part of me that pines for the cessation of this period of modern discourse, but I know that something just as bad or worse is waiting to happen in its negative space once it finally leaves. Nonetheless, this constellation of race rhetoric and victimhood hysteria will be remembered by history as deeply wrong-headed and intellectually embarrassing, and that will be cathartic to finally see play out one day.
Yeah this is brilliant, great work. Agree that things look to be improving, but as you say, the mania could reignite with Orange Man Bad (TM) back in office. Its also interesting to see that WSJ was always far below the main shitty media NYT and WaPo in abusing the English language, in any case.
"But his return to the White House, or the election of a Republican U.S. President could easily reignite the spirit of the Great Awokening."
This seems to assign guilt for the Great Awakening to those that oppose it, and ignores that pre-dates Trump and emerged largely from leftist echo chambers.
A more practical explanation would be that the height of the George Floyd panic has subsided because "Defund the Police" got so many people murdered and BLMs popularity is in the toilet. The sexuality and trans stuff seems to be holding up better.
Practically, we are entering a "consolidation" phase. The raw emotions of the protest phase are digested into institutional policy and capture as the general public learns to digest core premises of the radicals before you can have another offensive. Like a military campaign you need time between thrusts.
Back to the original assumption, it seems rather odd to suggest that electing people that are anti-woke and will pass anti-woke laws would strengthen woke-ism rather than weaken it. Does anyone believe woke is having an easier time in Florida vs California?
I understand that if you are a liberal who doesn't want to give up being a liberal and wants to have more peace in ones social circle then electing a republican might derange your friends...but have you considered getting new friends that don't fly off the handle whenever they don't get their way?
Great source material! Finding and compiling these types of metrics must really take hard work. I think it should also serve as a warning to the anti-woke not to lose their own humanity in their reaction to woke lunacy. The answer to the Manichean mindset is not to go to war, but rather to remain implacable in the pursuit of shared humanity.
Have you seen the new data on the rise of social conservatism? Saagar Enjeti did a short 6 minute monologue today on Breaking Points. It's deeply reassuring. The plurality are still broadly in favour of gay marriage and reacted badly to recent attempts to ban access to abortion, but have discovered an anti-authoritarian mindset and the convictions of the civic libertarian.
In short, they've discovered they don't like be told what to think, or what they can or cannot say!
On a more depressing note, I think the next manifestation of authoritarianism will be the radical climate agenda. Since the pandemic, I've become deeply worried about the potential impacts of climate policy which ignores the basic realities of global economics and the humanitarian benefits it brings the world. Most people don't seem to understand that economic shocks can be just as inimical to the world's poor, hungry and vulnerable.
According to the World Food Programme's 2022 data- roughly 80% of global food insecurity was still caused by war, 10% was due to economic shocks and 10% was due to causes in which climate change *might* have played a role. The world desperately needs more innovation, more well-reasoned civil discourse and, above all, more persuasion. Inviting one part of the population to become the embodiment of the tyranny of others simply isn't a solution.
Recently, I've been thinking about how parasite stress has a tendency to awaken nascent authoritarianism in populations. I think it's the concept that fear makes for piss poor policy-making decisions can be applied more broadly- I think it can even be applied to subjects like foreign relations and mass incarceration (the sane answer on the latter would have been Scottish Public Health Policing).
Trends never continue forever. Despite whether Trump or Biden or whoever is in the White House, people get tired of one thing and move on to something else, in politics, fashion, etc. It was always likely we’d see a correction.
Another wonderful contribution, David. I am so grateful to you for figuring out how to measure something so diffuse and important.
This confirms my impression, but you’re right to be cautious. I set out the reasons both to be optimistic that the Great Awokening has peaked, as well as the reasons it’s far from over — and warned that Trump’s re-election could shock the movement back into rude good health — here: https://dailysceptic.org/2023/05/27/a-dispatch-from-the-woke-wars/
It may just be the pandemic. Let's see how it will develop in 2023+.
A great piece. The pattern of peak, slight subsidence, then consolidation is what we saw in the first two Awokenings (late 60s, early 90s). I’d expect same this time. Only question is whether it ratchets to a an even higher level in a future upsurge.
This is interesting but it is not going to answer the question. The media is downstream from academics, where ideological and paramoral presuppositions meet the public, but it is downstream from the engines of cultural production. You should be looking at whether the neo-Marxist ideologies that manufacture woke ideologues are in decline, and that's not the same thing.
Recall, woke is postmodern and it constantly plays a game of semantic migration. For example, define woman. Alternatively, sex is observed not assigned, but it is woke-speak to say "gender assigned at birth." Notice how that phrase embeds presuppositions drawn from gender ideology that are inappropriate when it comes to identifying a person's biological characteristics. Wokeness is about controlling language, so the use of its jargon in media is a useful measure, but you have to look to the academies to keep up with the new words and redefinition. As woke jargon declines it is replaced. You are not measuring the rate if replacement and invention of new jargon (which would be extremely difficult).
To really know if woke is ascending or declining, you should be measuring DEI initiatives and other ways neo-Marxist ideologues implement their agendas. How many neo-Marxist professors are there? How many conservatives are in grad schools? These kinds of numbers will tell the real story.
There is a very large part of me that pines for the cessation of this period of modern discourse, but I know that something just as bad or worse is waiting to happen in its negative space once it finally leaves. Nonetheless, this constellation of race rhetoric and victimhood hysteria will be remembered by history as deeply wrong-headed and intellectually embarrassing, and that will be cathartic to finally see play out one day.
Ye, this is what anti woke people who want to vote for Trump don t seem to get Trump in office will trigger the activists even more.
After all, wokism appeared during his term, in part as a reaction to him.
Yeah this is brilliant, great work. Agree that things look to be improving, but as you say, the mania could reignite with Orange Man Bad (TM) back in office. Its also interesting to see that WSJ was always far below the main shitty media NYT and WaPo in abusing the English language, in any case.
Where do you get your raw data and what packages do you use to produce these? They are excellent.
This letter is very informative
Intergenerationally we are still loosing though. See Eric Kaufmann's article on the political views of Gen Z in Britain
"But his return to the White House, or the election of a Republican U.S. President could easily reignite the spirit of the Great Awokening."
This seems to assign guilt for the Great Awakening to those that oppose it, and ignores that pre-dates Trump and emerged largely from leftist echo chambers.
A more practical explanation would be that the height of the George Floyd panic has subsided because "Defund the Police" got so many people murdered and BLMs popularity is in the toilet. The sexuality and trans stuff seems to be holding up better.
Practically, we are entering a "consolidation" phase. The raw emotions of the protest phase are digested into institutional policy and capture as the general public learns to digest core premises of the radicals before you can have another offensive. Like a military campaign you need time between thrusts.
Back to the original assumption, it seems rather odd to suggest that electing people that are anti-woke and will pass anti-woke laws would strengthen woke-ism rather than weaken it. Does anyone believe woke is having an easier time in Florida vs California?
I understand that if you are a liberal who doesn't want to give up being a liberal and wants to have more peace in ones social circle then electing a republican might derange your friends...but have you considered getting new friends that don't fly off the handle whenever they don't get their way?
Great source material! Finding and compiling these types of metrics must really take hard work. I think it should also serve as a warning to the anti-woke not to lose their own humanity in their reaction to woke lunacy. The answer to the Manichean mindset is not to go to war, but rather to remain implacable in the pursuit of shared humanity.
Have you seen the new data on the rise of social conservatism? Saagar Enjeti did a short 6 minute monologue today on Breaking Points. It's deeply reassuring. The plurality are still broadly in favour of gay marriage and reacted badly to recent attempts to ban access to abortion, but have discovered an anti-authoritarian mindset and the convictions of the civic libertarian.
In short, they've discovered they don't like be told what to think, or what they can or cannot say!
On a more depressing note, I think the next manifestation of authoritarianism will be the radical climate agenda. Since the pandemic, I've become deeply worried about the potential impacts of climate policy which ignores the basic realities of global economics and the humanitarian benefits it brings the world. Most people don't seem to understand that economic shocks can be just as inimical to the world's poor, hungry and vulnerable.
According to the World Food Programme's 2022 data- roughly 80% of global food insecurity was still caused by war, 10% was due to economic shocks and 10% was due to causes in which climate change *might* have played a role. The world desperately needs more innovation, more well-reasoned civil discourse and, above all, more persuasion. Inviting one part of the population to become the embodiment of the tyranny of others simply isn't a solution.
Recently, I've been thinking about how parasite stress has a tendency to awaken nascent authoritarianism in populations. I think it's the concept that fear makes for piss poor policy-making decisions can be applied more broadly- I think it can even be applied to subjects like foreign relations and mass incarceration (the sane answer on the latter would have been Scottish Public Health Policing).
Trends never continue forever. Despite whether Trump or Biden or whoever is in the White House, people get tired of one thing and move on to something else, in politics, fashion, etc. It was always likely we’d see a correction.